New work from the AIAI project has been published in Nature, based on ice-shelf basal melt rates derived from neural networks and physical parameterisations, and on emulated surface mass balance.

Reference: Burgard, C., Jourdain, N. C., Mosbeux, C., Caillet, J., Mathiot, P., Kittel, C. (2025). Ocean warming threatens the viability of 60% of Antarctic ice shelves. Nature. doi:10.1038/s41586-025-09657-w

A Research Briefing that summarises the article has also been published: doi:10.1038/d41586-025-03581-9

We estimated dates, in given anthropogenic emission scenarios, beyond which individual ice shelves can no longer exist as we know them. We took into account all uncertainties related to the future of the ice, atmosphere, and ocean, including deep uncertainties about poorly understood processes such as ice fracturing and calving.

Number of non-viable ice shelves as a function of (a) global air temperatures, (b) time in a low-emission scenario (pink in panel a), and (c) time in a high emission scenario (purple in panel a). The colors in panels b and c indicate the probability of non-viability to be reached. The calculation of this probability was done in a way to give more weight to realizations close to available observations.

These results have been reported in Le Monde by Lea Sanchez, here in French or here in English